A changing climate impacts more than just people, food, and the environment. Extreme temperatures will, and already are, impacting our infrastructure, too.
More than 100,000 miles of railroad tracks cross the US—many of them made of steel. Steel physically changes in response to extreme temperatures. Extreme cold can cause tracks to separate. Extreme heat can result in thermal buckling, or sun kinks. Such deformation of the tracks can cause dangerous or deadly derailments. This interactive map from Diana Lavery at Esri explores where railroads in the US may be threatened by increases in extreme heat days.
This map uses climate data from Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation and rail lines from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. It opens by highlighting four train derailments caused by thermal buckling during a July 2012 heat wave. Tracks buckled across the country that year, from Washington to Texas.
The map also incorporates models of extreme heat by the mid-century (2036–2045). It overlays tracks with both a low-emissions (referred to as RCP 4.5 by scientists) and high-emissions forecast. Counties in dark red with darker rail lines show where risk of thermal buckling may be highest. You can click any place to see the number of projected extreme heat days. You can also find details on the miles of track and associated railroad companies.
In the low-emissions scenario, counties in the Southwest are most vulnerable. Even in a best-case scenario, thousands of miles of track could be at risk in California, Nevada, and Arizona. The high-emissions scenario paints a much bleaker picture. Nearly every southern state, from California to Florida, would experience widespread impacts. Even northern states including Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan could be impacted.
Thermal buckling can be fixed. Reinstalling tracks at higher neutral temperatures can help reduce buckling. Maps like this can help organizations prioritize track replacement and maintenance and reduce the risk of derailments.
